Harvey Schwartz on Why Private Credit Is Quietly Replacing Banks
The Carlyle CEO breaks down private credit’s global rise, founder impact, and why it’s not going away.
Harvey Schwartz doesn’t do fluff. The Carlyle Group CEO, an ex-Goldman banker with decades of market scars, cut straight to the point in a rare sit-down. Private credit isn’t just booming. It’s overtaking everything. His words weren’t promotional. They were directional. Like a compass for where capital and power is actually going.
Private Credit Isn’t a Trend. It’s a Redirection of Power.
While most banks are still licking their wounds from rate hikes and regulatory clamps, Carlyle is marching the other way. Fast. Schwartz pointed out the obvious, but few are willing to say it bluntly: private credit is the new foundation for dealmaking. Not because it’s sexy. Because it’s necessary.
According to Bloomberg, the firm is positioning itself to steer over $1.8 trillion into private credit by the end of the decade. That’s not a playbook pivot. That’s a systemic bet.
And it tracks. The public markets are twitchy. Banks are bogged down. But businesses, especially mid-market operators, still need capital to grow, acquire, or just survive the next geopolitical shock. Schwartz sees this space as more than just yield. He sees it as ballast.
A Veteran’s Read on the Risks
Don’t get him wrong. Schwartz isn’t romanticizing the space. He’s not dismissing the critics who warn of shadow banking contagion either. He’s just… unfazed. He told Bloomberg the risk talk is “exaggerated.” Why? Because the underwriting discipline in private credit has matured. Not everywhere, but in places that matter. Carlyle being one.
More interestingly, he sounded a note of caution—not about the market, but about leadership. “Stay buckled,” he reportedly told portfolio CEOs, citing rising tariffs and the looming economic drag from global election cycles. That’s classic trader DNA: play offense, but don’t unstrap your parachute.
Founders Should Pay Attention
For anyone building a business right now, especially founders outside the Valley echo chamber, this shift matters more than they probably realize. Traditional loans are drying up. Venture capital is pickier. But private credit? That’s a door creaking open if you’ve got stable cash flow and a serious plan.
Schwartz made it clear: this isn’t just about funding billion-dollar buyouts. Carlyle’s $194 billion credit arm is now set up to work across the spectrum. Infrastructure, direct lending, distressed plays, it’s all part of the same machine. For new entrepreneurs, that’s a chance to grow without handing over the cap table.
You can take on strategic debt without losing control. But only if you know what the other side of the table wants.
Global Appetite, Local Ground Game
One thing Schwartz said hit different: “Private credit is local.” He meant that in a boots-on-the-ground way. Carlyle’s not just cutting checks from New York. They’re embedding teams across Asia, Europe, and LATAM. That local lens matters, especially when financing needs nuance, not boilerplate.
But here’s the thing: the discipline still travels. This isn’t a free-for-all. Carlyle’s pitch is built on trust, between lenders and borrowers, between institutions and operators. Schwartz knows the moment that slips, the whole system gets jittery.
So the firm’s doubling down, but with guardrails. AI infrastructure, energy transitions, cross-border supply chains—those are the big-ticket themes. But it’s the small operators with operational rigor and sharp execution that will get funded.
The Real Takeaway
The power is shifting. Slowly, then suddenly. And Schwartz is one of the few execs not sugarcoating it. He’s not promising easy money. He’s pointing to the new map. If you’re a founder grinding through financing talks in this environment, watch where the giants are moving. That’s your weather system.
And right now? It’s private credit. Quiet, fast, and getting global by the minute.
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Ethan is a Lisbon-based leadership strategist who helps remote-first startups scale through systems, team clarity, and async culture.
