New York, June 17, 2026: A week ago, SpaceX was the company everyone speculated about but nobody outside its cap table could actually buy into. Now it trades as SPCX on the Nasdaq, and it has already turned into one of the most watched tickers in the American market, with no shortage of SpaceX stock prediction takes already circulating online.
- THE WEEK THAT REWROTE THE RECORD BOOK
- THE SPACEX STOCK PREDICTION STARTS WITH WHO RANG THE BELL
- WHAT THE S-1 FILING ACTUALLY SHOWS
- THREE BUSINESSES, ONE TICKER
- STARLINK BY THE NUMBERS
- THE $28.5 TRILLION CLAIM
- A DEFICIT THIRTY YEARS IN THE MAKING
- WHAT WALL STREET’S FIRST ANALYST SAID
- THE CONSENSUS PRICE TARGET TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY
- MORNINGSTAR’S WARNING BEFORE THE BELL
- THE FLOAT PROBLEM EVERY TRADER IS WATCHING
- WHY MUSK’S OWN REVENUE TARGET LOOKS DIFFERENT FROM WALL STREET’S
- WHAT THIS WEEK ACTUALLY MEANS FOR INVESTORS
- FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
This is not rumor or leaked chatter. It is built on the company’s own regulatory filing, on the record comments from its CEO, and price data confirmed by the exchange itself. Every figure and quote below is attributed by name, and nothing here goes beyond what a credible, named publication or SpaceX’s own SEC filing actually says.
THE WEEK THAT REWROTE THE RECORD BOOK
On June 12, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp completed what CNBC and several other outlets describe as the largest initial public offering in stock market history.
The numbers behind that claim are specific. SpaceX raised $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, according to Reuters and Bloomberg reporting from June 3, 2026.
Shares opened at $150 on debut day and closed near $161, up about 19%, per CNBC, which valued the company at roughly $2.1 trillion the moment the bell rang. More than 500 million shares changed hands that first day. CNBC pointed out that the volume came close to Facebook’s 2012 debut, which saw around 580 million shares trade.
The rally kept going from there. CNBC reported SPCX climbing another 20% in its first full day of regular trading, which pushed the company’s valuation past $2 trillion. By June 16, financial data platform Investing.com had SPCX trading at $201.80, inside a 52 week range of $135.00 to $225.64.
Trading platform Pluang put SpaceX’s market cap at roughly $2.52 trillion as of that date, with an enterprise value just above that, near $2.53 trillion. That is enough to put SpaceX among the largest public companies anywhere. TipRanks reported the stock had already overtaken Amazon to become the world’s fifth largest company by market value.
THE SPACEX STOCK PREDICTION STARTS WITH WHO RANG THE BELL
Elon Musk and SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell marked the moment together, according to CNBC, with Musk joining from Texas while Shotwell rang the opening bell in person at the Nasdaq in New York.
What Musk said that day matters more than the ceremony itself. Every SpaceX stock prediction now circulating on Wall Street traces back, in some way, to the growth story he laid out before the stock even opened.
On a JPMorgan Chase livestream before the listing, Musk said SpaceX had been cash flow positive since around 2015, per CNBC’s reporting. He framed the IPO as a way to fund what he called “a significant growth phase,” pointing to plans for more than 100,000 satellites in orbit for communications and artificial intelligence data centers built in space, according to CNBC.
That framing is exactly what analysts are now pricing into their models. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire through his combined SpaceX and Tesla stakes. He started SpaceX as a rocket company. Today, per CNBC, the only part of the business that’s consistently profitable is Starlink, which is also the single biggest variable in every SpaceX stock prediction built since the IPO.
WHAT THE S-1 FILING ACTUALLY SHOWS
SpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2026. That document gave the public its first real look at the company’s books, according to Via Satellite. The top line number looked good: $18.7 billion in total revenue for full year 2025, per Morningstar’s review of the filing.
The bottom line told a rougher story. Morningstar confirmed the company swung to a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, a sharp reversal from the $791 million net profit it posted in 2024, according to financial newsletter The VC Corner’s read of the same filing.
On an adjusted EBITDA basis, which strips out non cash costs, SpaceX still came out ahead, at $6.58 billion for 2025, per Morningstar. Why the gap between an EBITDA profit and a GAAP loss? Mostly stock based compensation, depreciation on the Starlink constellation, and capital spending on AI infrastructure.
THREE BUSINESSES, ONE TICKER
For the first time, the S-1 split SpaceX into three reporting segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence, according to HL’s review of the filing. Space, the segment covering Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, and the still developing Starship rocket, brought in $4.1 billion in 2025, per Via Satellite.
It also lost money. The segment posted a $657 million operating loss in 2025, mostly from research and development spending on Starship, according to The VC Corner’s breakdown of the filing. Connectivity, built around Starlink, is now SpaceX’s biggest revenue generator. It pulled in $11.4 billion in 2025, per KraneShares’ analysis of the S-1.
It was also the only segment to turn a profit, with $4.4 billion in operating income for the year, according to The VC Corner. The newest segment, built around the recently acquired xAI business, generated $3.2 billion in 2025, per Via Satellite. That AI segment lost $6.4 billion in 2025 on an operating basis, according to The VC Corner, by far the biggest drag on the company’s overall profitability.
STARLINK BY THE NUMBERS
Starlink’s growth is the clearest part of this whole story. Subscribers went from 2.3 million in 2023 to 4.4 million in 2024, then to 8.9 million by the end of 2025, according to Via Satellite’s review of the S-1. By the end of the first quarter of 2026, that number had climbed to 10.3 million, per the same filing data.
Revenue per subscriber moved in the opposite direction. Average revenue per Starlink user fell from $99 a month in 2023 to $81 in 2025, then to $66 in the first quarter of 2026, according to HL’s analysis. Put plainly: more people are signing up, but each one is paying less than they used to.
For the first quarter of 2026 alone, the Connectivity segment generated $3,257 million in revenue, $1,188 million in income from operations, and $2,087 million in segment adjusted EBITDA, according to the S-1 filing itself, as published through the SEC’s EDGAR system.
THE $28.5 TRILLION CLAIM
SpaceX’s filing makes one of the boldest market size claims any company has put in front of public investors. It puts its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, calling it “the largest actionable total addressable market in human history,” a line Via Satellite pulled directly from the filing.
That figure splits three ways: $370 billion in space related markets, $1.6 trillion in connectivity, and $26.5 trillion in artificial intelligence, per the same filing data. Inside that connectivity number, the S-1 breaks the $1.6 trillion down further, into roughly $870 billion for fixed Starlink broadband and about $740 billion for Starlink’s mobile service, according to KraneShares.
There’s a longer term bet buried in the filing too. SpaceX says it expects to start deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028, aiming to handle energy intensive AI workloads in space instead of on the ground, according to the company’s own S-1 text on file with the SEC.
A DEFICIT THIRTY YEARS IN THE MAKING
SpaceX was founded in 2002. By CNBC’s count, it has run up an accumulated deficit of roughly $41.3 billion since then. That deficit grew faster heading into the IPO than at almost any earlier point. CNBC reported a $4.28 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Much of that spending has gone into Starship. The company has already put more than $15 billion into developing the rocket, which it eventually wants to be fully reusable, per CNBC’s reporting on the IPO filings.
None of that has dented SpaceX’s grip on the launch business. A breakdown from financial newsletter Mostly Metrics found SpaceX flew 11 of 12 National Security Space Launch missions and all five U.S. crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station in 2025. It put SpaceX’s share of global launches at around 85%, and said the company controls roughly three quarters of all active maneuverable satellites in low Earth orbit.
WHAT WALL STREET’S FIRST ANALYST SAID
Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan was first out of the gate. He’s the first analyst outside the IPO’s underwriting syndicate to put formal coverage on SPCX, according to TheStreet. His call: an “outperform” rating and a $190 price target, which works out to roughly 41% above the $135 listing price, per TheStreet. That target implies a market cap near $2.5 trillion within 12 to 18 months, according to the same coverage.
TheStreet reported that Horan’s thesis comes down to one idea: no other company combines the capital, data, hardware, and large language model capability that SpaceX now has spread across Space, Connectivity, and AI all at once.
Worth noting, per the same report: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley were among the more than a dozen banks that underwrote the IPO, and underwriters are typically barred by quiet period rules from publishing their own ratings right after a listing.
THE CONSENSUS PRICE TARGET TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY
Horan’s call is the outlier, though. The broader analyst consensus on SPCX looks a lot more cautious than the stock’s actual trading price. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks, last updated June 15 and published through StockAnalysis.com, shows five analysts landing on a consensus “Buy” with an average 12 month target of $164.
That’s roughly 15% below where the stock was trading when the data was pulled. Estimates among those five swing widely too, from a low of $63 to a high of $227, per the same source. Investing.com’s own consensus tracker shows four “buy” calls and one “sell,” with that same $164 average target implying about 18.73% downside from recent levels.
TradingView, polling a separate set of five analysts over the prior three months, came up with a slightly higher average of $189.25, a high of $310, and a low of $165. A $63 low estimate and a $310 high estimate, published in the same week, says something on its own. Wall Street has not agreed on a model for what this company is worth.
MORNINGSTAR’S WARNING BEFORE THE BELL
Not everyone was cheering the IPO. Morningstar analysts called SpaceX “significantly overvalued” in a note published before the listing, per CNBC’s reporting. Their own discounted cash flow valuation came out to $780 billion, CNBC reported, roughly 48% below the $1.5 trillion private market valuation the company carried before its IPO target was pushed even higher.
xAI got the harshest treatment in that note. CNBC reported Morningstar described its economic moat as “indeterminate” and called it a “material threat of value destruction,” not a sure source of upside.
Even with that long term skepticism, Morningstar conceded the stock had near term support. CNBC reported the analysts pointed to a small initial float, backing from “almost every investment bank on the planet,” and a fast tracked path into the Nasdaq 100 as reasons the share price could “survive separation and may even ascend,” even while they stood by their longer run valuation concerns.
THE FLOAT PROBLEM EVERY TRADER IS WATCHING
A lot of the volatility in this stock has nothing to do with rockets or satellites at all. Investing.com’s guide to the IPO put SpaceX’s free float at just 4.3% of total shares, an unusually small slice available to trade. For context, most established index stocks carry a free float above 80%, and the S&P 500 itself requires at least 10% to even qualify for membership, per Investing.com.
When that few shares are chasing that much demand, price swings get amplified in both directions. The lock up structure adds another layer. According to CNBC’s reporting on the S-1, insiders become eligible to sell up to 20% of their locked up shares once SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company, with another 10% unlocking if the stock is trading at least 30% above the $135 offer price.
Investing.com’s breakdown adds five more time based tranches, at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post IPO, each releasing another 7%, plus a further 28% after third quarter earnings, with the remainder coming free at the 180 day mark.
There’s one carve out outside that whole schedule. A 5% friends and family allocation has no lock up at all, per Investing.com, meaning roughly $3.75 billion in shares could already be tradeable without restriction. Musk himself plays by different rules. CNBC reported he controls about 42% of SpaceX’s equity, and unlike everyone else, he’s locked up for a full 366 days with no access to any of the early release provisions.
Once that period ends, the filing itself says Musk “will not be subject to any obligation to maintain his ownership interest” and “may elect at any time thereafter to sell all or a substantial portion of or otherwise reduce his ownership interest,” language CNBC pulled directly from the S-1.
CNBC also flagged a date worth circling: roughly 911 million insider shares, about twice the size of today’s public float, unlock just two days after SpaceX’s first earnings report.
WHY MUSK’S OWN REVENUE TARGET LOOKS DIFFERENT FROM WALL STREET’S
Musk has put a number out there himself: $1 trillion in annual SpaceX revenue by 2031, a figure TipRanks reported. Wall Street isn’t modeling anywhere close to that. A report republished on Yahoo Finance citing CNBC put Goldman Sachs’ 2030 revenue forecast at roughly $470 billion, and Morgan Stanley’s at about $330 billion over the same stretch.
That same report noted Starlink currently accounts for 61% of SpaceX’s revenue, and that getting anywhere near Musk’s trillion dollar target would require annual launch volume to grow roughly 100 times over from the 165 launches the company flew in its most recent measured year. It also pointed out that xAI is up against serious competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, which makes it a shaky bet to carry SpaceX’s revenue on its own.
WHAT THIS WEEK ACTUALLY MEANS FOR INVESTORS
If you’re searching for a “SpaceX stock price prediction,” here’s the honest answer: there isn’t one, not from SpaceX, not from a regulator, not from Anthropic. What you get instead is a spread of analyst models built on different bets, about Starlink’s subscriber growth, Starship’s launch pace, and whether xAI turns into a real profit engine or just keeps eating cash.
Right now those models run from $63 to $310 a share over a 12 month window, based on the data compiled by StockAnalysis.com, Investing.com, and TradingView. The stock has already covered more than half of that entire range on its own, closing near $161 on debut and touching $225.64 within days, per Investing.com’s tracked 52 week range.
Given a 4.3% float, a lock up schedule split into stages, and a Nasdaq 100 inclusion event coming up that could force index funds to buy regardless of price, that kind of swing tracks with what Morningstar warned about before the IPO even happened.
The scale is the part nobody really has precedent for. A $2.5 trillion company trading on a float this thin, with insider unlock dates piling up right after its very first earnings report, isn’t a setup the market has tested before.
The investors who come out ahead here are probably the ones watching the calendar as closely as the ticker: the first earnings report, the 15 session Nasdaq 100 decision, and the wave of insider unlocks that follows almost immediately. Watch the price alone, and this stock will catch you off guard.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q1. What is SpaceX’s stock ticker and where does it trade?
SpaceX trades under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. It completed its IPO on June 12, 2026, per CNBC, after filing its S-1 prospectus with the SEC on May 20, 2026, according to Via Satellite.
Q2. What is the average analyst price target for SPCX?
Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks, published through StockAnalysis.com on June 15, 2026, shows five analysts at a consensus “Buy” with an average 12 month target of $164, ranging from $63 to $227. TradingView’s separate tracker of five analysts came in a bit higher, at $189.25, with a top estimate of $310.
Q3. Is SpaceX actually profitable?
Depends which number you’re looking at. SpaceX posted $6.58 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, per Morningstar’s review of the S-1, but a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion for the same year, and that loss accelerated to $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, according to CNBC. Only the Connectivity segment, built around Starlink, was profitable on an operating basis in 2025, with $4.4 billion in operating income, per The VC Corner’s analysis of the filing.
Q4. Why is SpaceX’s stock so volatile right now?
SpaceX listed with a free float of just 4.3% of total shares, according to Investing.com, which is an unusually thin supply against investor demand. On top of that, the company built a staggered lock up schedule that releases different batches of insider shares at multiple points over the following months, per CNBC’s reporting on the S-1, and each of those unlock dates tends to add to the swings as it approaches.
Q5. When can SpaceX insiders, including Elon Musk, sell their shares?
Most insiders get their first chance to sell a portion of shares once SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company, with more tranches unlocking at set points afterward, according to CNBC and Investing.com’s reporting on the filing. Musk is the exception: he’s locked up for 366 days and can’t tap into any of the early release provisions everyone else gets, per CNBC’s citation of the S-1.
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Isabella is a global business journalist and former McKinsey analyst from Brazil. She brings sharp insights on economic shifts, policies, and founder journeys from around the world.
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